Gas above $4 for four months complicates GOP midterm bid

The national average gasoline price has remained above $4 per gallon since mid-June. This sustained spike is complicating the Republican effort to retain control of Congress in the November 3 elections.

President Donald Trump described the war with Iran as a little detour when it began. He initially predicted the conflict would last only a matter of weeks. The fight has now continued for nearly eight months, eroding the public goodwill he once enjoyed among voters who favored his America First pledge to avoid foreign entanglements.

Republican strategists acknowledge that high energy costs are a liability. They report that districts Trump won easily in 2024 are becoming competitive. In states like Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, and Texas, diesel prices hovering near all-time highs are weighing on candidates who face tight races against Democrats.

An AP-NORC poll released last week showed that voters from both major parties want the next Congress to prioritize affordability and end the war. The conflict has expanded beyond Iran, with Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacking Saudi oil infrastructure and airports. A Saudi-led coalition responded with strikes on Houthi-held territory in Yemen. The State Department also reported reducing staffing at four U.S. embassies in the Middle East after intelligence suggested Iran was targeting American personnel.

Trump has downplayed the economic impact during campaign stops. At a rally in Michigan this weekend, he said he had no regrets about starting the war. He told the crowd that he expected gas prices to be double or triple their current level, calling the current cost a small price to pay for removing a nuclear threat.

Christopher Borick, director of the Lehigh University Opinion Observatory, noted that Trump's messaging resonates with a shrinking portion of the electorate. He said that for voters disappointed with the conflict's direction, the president's claims have not changed their negative outlook.

Voters in Michigan and Iowa expressed mixed feelings about the cost. Clay Coey, an auctioneer in DeWitt, Michigan, said he cringes when filling his tank but remains willing to pay higher prices to address security threats. Elizabeth Marlett, a beef rancher in Iowa, said she supports the commander in chief even if the war takes longer than expected. Sean O'Brien, a student at Auburn University in Alabama, said the decision to fight Iran left him disillusioned and expecting to vote for Democrats this year.