Ad spending in Michigan's 7th District nears $60 million

Ad spending in the 7th Congressional District has already reached nearly $60 million. The figure makes the mid-Michigan race the most expensive in the state’s midterm cycle so far. Candidates and outside groups are pouring money into the district because political analysts view it as a key factor in controlling the U.S. House. Will Lawrence and groups supporting him have spent more than $33 million on advertisements. Tom Barrett and his supporters have spent more than $27 million. The ads cover topics including health care, data centers, and the war in Iran.

The 7th District is one of three Michigan House races that Cook Political Report rates as a toss-up. The other two are the 4th District in Southwest Michigan and the 10th District in Metro Detroit. Republicans currently hold 11 of Michigan’s 13 congressional seats. Democrats hope to flip at least one of these three seats to retake the majority in the House. Marty Jordan, an associate professor of political science at Michigan State University, stated that the outcome of the 7th District will likely determine the control of the U.S. House. He noted it is highly unlikely Democrats retake the chamber without winning that specific seat.

In the 4th District, incumbent Republican Bill Huizenga faces Democratic state Sen. Sean McCann. Huizenga has held the seat since 2011. He won by approximately 11 percentage points in both the 2022 and 2024 elections. McCann, a Kalamazoo Democrat, has served in the state House and Senate. John Clark, a political science professor at Western Michigan University, said McCann has local name recognition and fundraising ability that previous challengers lacked. Clark noted that voter turnout in Kalamazoo, Battle Creek, and Benton Harbor will be decisive. He added that large student turnout could benefit Democratic candidates across the ballot.

The 10th District race is open because incumbent John James left to run for governor. Republican Michael Bouchard is competing against Democrat Christina Hines for the seat. The district includes southern Macomb County as well as Rochester and Rochester Hills in Oakland County. Hines is a prosecuting attorney who has worked in both Macomb and Oakland counties. Bouchard is a U.S. Army veteran who shares a surname with former Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. Dave Dulio, a political science professor at Oakland University, said the well-known name may provide an advantage in the voting booth. He suggested Bouchard could overcome the district’s Democratic lean by performing well in Center Line and Eastpointe.

Both parties are running ads that highlight similar policy themes. In the 4th District, Huizenga and McCann are both airing commercials about energy affordability and data centers. Clark observed that the ads are so similar that removing the candidates’ names would make it difficult to distinguish which campaign produced them. In the 10th District, Hines is campaigning on lowering health care costs and reducing money in politics. Bouchard is focusing on border security and manufacturing tariffs. Competing ads have labeled Hines soft on crime and Bouchard a rubber stamp for the Trump administration.

Republicans hold the House by four seats nationally. In Michigan, Democrats lost one incumbent in the primary season. Shri Thanedar lost the Democratic primary for the 13th District to state Rep. Donavan McKinney. McKinney is a heavy favorite to win the general election. Democrats are also targeting the 1st District in northern Michigan, though it remains a longshot. Republican Jack Bergman faces Callie Barr there. Bergman won by more than 20 percentage points in the last election. Barr said voters are looking for change due to recent trade wars and conflicts. The Michigan Republican Party stated voters are coming out in full force for Bergman.

The general election is scheduled for Nov. 3. Voters in the 4th, 7th, and 10th Districts will cast ballots that could shift control of the House. In the 7th District, Barrett won his 2024 election by 3.7 percentage points. He had narrowly lost the 2022 race to Elissa Slotkin. Lawrence has criticized Barrett’s changing stance on data centers and his alignment with Trump on tariffs. Barrett has questioned Lawrence’s past views on defunding police and his current support for single-payer health care. In the 10th District, the race remains tight with no clear frontrunner declared by major forecasting groups.